Apt. 11D

Mandates, the Presidency, and Other Pipe Dreams

What's the President's first move going to be? Will this election allow him to charge forward on a radical program for change? Does he have Congress in his pocket?

I'm inclined to say that Bush will push forward one or two pet projects in the next 100 days, but on the whole not much will change. The power of the presidency is much overrated. Maybe I'll expand on this later, but I'll just have to add some links to others on this topic right now. Andrew Sullivan.

OK. One quick thought. I'm finding it very amusing that the fiscal conservative, pro-war Republicans are denying that the election was about moral values. The Country Club Republican are distancing themselves from the Bible Belt Republicans. This uneasy alliance within the Republican party could unravel pretty quickly.

(God I shouldn't be doing this right now, but I just. can't. help. myself. Blog=Crack. Another quick thought and then I'm really walking away from the computer until tonight. Really.)

There is a huge misconception about how much power the parties have and how much power the president has over fellow Republicans in Congress. This is not England. Parties are very weak in this country and the president is not the head of his party. Individual congressmen are under no obligation to obey the president. Sure, the president has a few carrots and sticks at his disposal to sway a Congressman. But every congressman is primarily motivated by an interest in getting reelected and to do that he must serve his constituency and not make lame-brained comments like "I'm a DC resident" around his South Dakota voters.

And the president certainly can't remove Specter from his leadership of a committee. Todd Zywicki at the Volokh Conspiracy doesn't get it. Leadership is determined by seniority.

short journal entry

I just came back from Manhattan where I braved traffic on Marathon Sunday just to visit my new, beautiful niece in the hospital.

Driving over the bridge was fine until I made the false move of going down the Westside Highway, rather than the FDR Drive. The runners were staggering out of Central Park in the mid 70s and all entrances to the park were closed. So, I just inched down Columbus Avenue until Central Park South. After I finished cursing my stupidity, I sat back and enjoyed myself.

35,000 heroes in lycra tights and blue and white Road Runners capes milled down the block. Many were surrounded by family members holding balloons and signs. No body fat in sight. Aaah, if I didn't have those crappy knees... Along Central Park South, many of the runners were still coming at the six hour mark. I leaned out of the car and got in a "whoo whoo" to cheer on the stragglers.

I finally wound my way over to E. 77th St and managed some truly tragic parallel parking.

My niece is the best. With eyes sealed shut, she made a full range of facial expressions from disdain to surprise for her loving aunt. Her skinny little legs were all froggy and red. And those newborns know just how to tuck in so perfectly into the crook of an arm. I want twelve more.

Religion or Culture?

More interesting discussion about religion and politics by Russell Arben Fox and the Crooked Timber gang. What concessions should be made in the Democratic platform to make it more appealing to the red states?

Truthfully, I had to take a breather from the computer and election analysis yesterday. It was all starting to get to me. I read too many "the end times are here" blog posts, and I needed to regroup.

I am very worried that the election results reflect a culture war rather than policy differences about morality. We could probably find a resolution to the gay marriage issue. We could have different policies across the states or just call it a civil union. But was this vote more about anger at those who don't attend church regularly, who seem to have airs, who went to a private school?

The Bush and Kerry voters also seem to possess diametrically opposite views of reality. Something like 95% of Bush voters thought that economy was going great, and 90% of Kerry voters thought that the economy was in the toilet.

If there are such larger differences between the center and the coasts of our country, then there are no compromises and no solutions.

I might be wrong. I hope I am.

[Portions of the original post were deleted. This morning, I took red America's vote for Bush too personally. The resentment and hatred for the coastal states documented in recent articles rattled me.]

Emotions Are Running High

I'm done with the wonky blogs and news sources, and I'm surfing deeper into the Internet. The emotions are running deep. Read Tim Burke, Rana, PZ Myers, and Amanda.

Religion and Politics

I have to admit that this all took me by surprise. Not that Bush won, but why he won. I knew that morality and elitism for the Democratic leadership was a problem and even wrote a post or two about it. But mostly I thought that Bush voters were motivated by the war, terrorism, and taxes.

I'm not sure why I was so dense. I should have looked at the Bush voters in my own family. They voted for him because they are bigtime Catholics, and they hated Kerry's record on late term abortions, stem cell research, gay marriage. On all others issues, they side with the Democrats. My dad is still a registered Democrat, but hasn't voted with his party since 1980. He once wrote that pro-lifers should be more at home with the Democratic party.

Maybe I shouldn't be so hard on myself for missing this one. Paul Begala was just saying that mainstream media (or the coastal media as they are calling themselves) missed out the moral angle of this campaign, because Bush was silent about this during the debate and on the stump. These issues were pushed on the local level by direct mail and other sources. I don't know, Paul. That sounds like a vast right wing conspiracy to me.

Should we fear the mandate that this election gave religious conservatives? I am hopeful that our Madisonian government can prevent any hasty action from taking place and that there will be much variation of law between the states. Also, maybe by making some inroads with the religious, like my folks, we can find some common ground, especially on economic issues.

Things to Read:
Nicholas Kristof writes that the Democratic Party needs to connect to religious Americans.
Kieran Healy writes that the exit poll data show that 22% of the electorate thought that “moral values” was the most important issue in the election, and these voters went for Bush nearly 80% to 20%.
Eszter at Crooked Timberjumps starts a good conversation about religion and politics. Russell Arben Fox, Harry Brighouse, and others debate whether or not to fear religious groups and the failure of liberals/Democrats to bring them into their tent.
Bill Bennett: Having restored decency to the White House, President Bush now has a mandate to affect policy that will promote a more decent society, through both politics and law. His supporters want that, and have given him a mandate in their popular and electoral votes to see to it. Now is the time to begin our long, national cultural renewal ("The Great Relearning," as novelist Tom Wolfe calls it) — no less in legislation than in federal court appointments. It is, after all, the main reason George W. Bush was reelected.
Morality is good. Vice is bad. Well, except for gambling. That's okay.
Tim Burke debates the benefit and wisdom of abandoning the fight with religious America and allowing for vast differences between the states on these issues.

Election Stream of Consciousness

I'm surfing around looking for commentary and sane analysis. Sorry, but I'm steering clear of the pro-Bush blogs. Don't want to hear any lectures. Like this one from Michele Catalano.

Kevin Drum says the youth vote fell through. What Rock the Vote didn't mobilize drunk college students? Shocked.

Great column by Kristof in the Times. Democrats really need to do a better job connecting with average Americans. One-third of Americans are evangelical Christians, and many of them perceive Democrats as often contemptuous of their faith. And, frankly, they're often right. Some evangelicals take revenge by smiting Democratic candidates. Republican have done a better job reaching the guy in Kansas, even though their economic policies do him no good at all.

Random thought: This election is bad, bad news for Hillary. Because isn't she just Kerry II. She suffers from the same problem of seeming elitist. In 2008, we need a liberal with a populist touch. Hillary doesn't have that.

The Pollster Scorecard: They were right that this election was going to be a squeeker. They screwed up the exit polls. They didn't get until too late that this election wasn't about terror or the war. It was all social values.

First the Yankees. Then Kerry.

Not having a very good fall now, am I?

The best thing to do when facing a loss is not to quibble or blame. But to look for ways to improve. And beat the crap out of them next time. Okay, that's my job.

But I don't have as much to lose as some others. I can afford to be high minded. Read Andrew Sullivan today, especially his analysis of the devasting loss in this election for gay marriage. He's being a real champ about it.

The dignity of our lives and our relationships as gay people is not dependent on heterosexual approval or tolerance. Our dignity exists regardless of their fear. We have something invaluable in this struggle: the knowledge that we are in the right, that our loves are as deep and as powerful and as God-given as their loves, that our relationships truly are bonds of faith and hope that are worthy, in God's eyes and our own, of equal respect. Being gay is a blessing.

Why?

Why did Kerry lose? Possible explanations:

- He didn't get enough turnout in the black community.
- A good number of young voters went for Bush. The Reagan babies.
- The states that Bush won in 2000 expanded in population. Those states increased their electoral count by 7.
- Kerry never reached the rural voters.
- There is suprising amount of opposition to same sex marriage. The states that had this issue on the ballot attracked more Republicans to the polls.
- Red and blue Americas ain't no myth. Those divisions are very strong.
- Bush's homey style really does matter.
- Edwards did nothing for Kerry. A big disappointment.

Quick Note Before the School Bus

Last night, I shut the top of my laptop and watched TV until I fell asleep on the floor. The TV news beat the blogs on election night.

No commentary yet. I'm still processing everything. And I have to get Jonah ready for the school bus. The damn thing comes at 8:30 regardless of cliffhanger elections. I suppose that's a good thing, right?

One quick note: I think it's time for the Kerry camp to concede. Bush has him beat in OH by 100,000. There is no way that the provisional votes will alter those results.

Early Signs-- Kerry in the Lead

Voter News Service 1pm exit polls
Kerry listed first
AZ 45-55 CO 48-51 LA 42-57 PA 60-40 OH 52-48 FL 51-48 MI 51-47 NM 50-48 MN 58-40 WI 52-43 IA 49-49 NH 57-41

On the other hand... a briefer on exit polls by the mystery pollster.